Netherlands U21 vs Norway U21

25 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Netherlands U21

Norway U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% DRAW 22.4% AWAY 21.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.2% 1.86 DRAW 23.7% 4.09 AWAY 24.1% 4.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Netherlands U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.9% win probability, compared with 52.2% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Netherlands U21

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Netherlands U21 Norway U21

Shots 16.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Netherlands U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Netherlands U21 Norway U21

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Netherlands U21 Norway U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Netherlands U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Netherlands U21 ↓ -0.19 (-9.4%)

Norway U21 ↑ +0.73 (+22.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.