Finland U21 vs Spain U21

25 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Finland U21

Spain U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.9% DRAW 22.4% AWAY 61.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.2% 6.40 DRAW 22.4% 4.35 AWAY 62.4% 1.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Finland U21

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Finland U21 Spain U21

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Finland U21 Spain U21

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Spain U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Finland U21 Spain U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Spain U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Finland U21 ↓ -1.05 (-14.1%)

Spain U21 ↑ +0.19 (+13.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.