Ukraine U21 vs Türkiye U21

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.3 pp

Ukraine U21

Türkiye U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.3% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 28.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% 2.33 DRAW 26.5% 3.60 AWAY 32.5% 2.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Ukraine U21 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.3% win probability, compared with 41.0% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ukraine U21 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ukraine U21 Türkiye U21

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 2.5 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Ukraine U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ukraine U21 Türkiye U21

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ukraine U21 Türkiye U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Ukraine U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ukraine U21 ↓ -0.17 (-6.8%)

Türkiye U21 ↑ +0.44 (+17.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.