Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

27 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Nashville SC

Toronto FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% DRAW 17.0% AWAY 12.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.9% 1.43 DRAW 18.5% 5.25 AWAY 13.6% 7.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nashville SC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.6% win probability, compared with 67.9% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nashville SC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nashville SC Toronto FC

Shots 14.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nashville SC Toronto FC

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 7.8

Nashville SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nashville SC Toronto FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Nashville SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nashville SC ↓ -0.07 (-4.5%)

Toronto FC ↑ +0.87 (+13.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.