Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City

27 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Houston Dynamo

Sporting Kansas City

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.1% DRAW 21.4% AWAY 17.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.2% 1.64 DRAW 22.2% 4.44 AWAY 17.6% 5.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sporting Kansas City

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Houston Dynamo Sporting Kansas City

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 15.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Sporting Kansas City, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Houston Dynamo Sporting Kansas City

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 7.8

Houston Dynamo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Houston Dynamo Sporting Kansas City

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Houston Dynamo ↑ +0.12 (+7.6%)

Sporting Kansas City ↓ -0.70 (-11.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.