Austin FC vs San Diego FC

27 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Austin FC

San Diego FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 34.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% 2.65 DRAW 26.5% 3.70 AWAY 36.4% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Austin FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.9% win probability, compared with 37.1% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Austin FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Austin FC San Diego FC

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Austin FC San Diego FC

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Austin FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Austin FC San Diego FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Austin FC ↑ +0.21 (+8.6%)

San Diego FC ↓ -0.13 (-4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.