Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC

27 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.0 pp

Philadelphia Union

Orlando City SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.6% DRAW 16.9% AWAY 14.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.6% 1.56 DRAW 19.3% 5.05 AWAY 18.0% 5.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Philadelphia Union substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.6% win probability, compared with 62.6% implied by the market. The 6.0 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Philadelphia Union has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Philadelphia Union Orlando City SC

Shots 19.5 · On target 7.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Philadelphia Union, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Philadelphia Union Orlando City SC

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Philadelphia Union has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Philadelphia Union Orlando City SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Philadelphia Union.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Philadelphia Union ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

Orlando City SC ↑ +0.15 (+2.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.