Atlanta United vs New York City FC

27 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Atlanta United

New York City FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% DRAW 26.2% AWAY 33.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.4% 2.55 DRAW 26.7% 3.67 AWAY 35.0% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Atlanta United

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atlanta United New York City FC

Shots 15.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atlanta United New York City FC

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Atlanta United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atlanta United New York City FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atlanta United ↑ +0.05 (+2.4%)

New York City FC ↓ -0.11 (-3.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.