San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union

14 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

San Diego FC

Philadelphia Union

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 44.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.6% 2.83 DRAW 24.7% 3.97 AWAY 40.8% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Philadelphia Union relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.6% win probability, compared with 40.8% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Philadelphia Union has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

San Diego FC Philadelphia Union

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Philadelphia Union, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

San Diego FC Philadelphia Union

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Philadelphia Union has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

San Diego FC Philadelphia Union

The combined recent performance profile favours Philadelphia Union.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

San Diego FC ↑ +0.23 (+8.9%)

Philadelphia Union ↓ -0.13 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.