Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC

14 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Vancouver Whitecaps

Austin FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.4% DRAW 12.4% AWAY 7.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.3% 1.29 DRAW 14.6% 6.76 AWAY 9.1% 10.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Vancouver Whitecaps clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.4% win probability, compared with 76.3% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Vancouver Whitecaps has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vancouver Whitecaps Austin FC

Shots 18.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Vancouver Whitecaps, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vancouver Whitecaps Austin FC

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Vancouver Whitecaps has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vancouver Whitecaps Austin FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Vancouver Whitecaps.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Vancouver Whitecaps ↑ +0.03 (+2.4%)

Austin FC ↓ -0.30 (-2.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.