Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

13 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Chicago Fire

New England Revolution

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 30.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.9% 2.00 DRAW 23.9% 4.10 AWAY 27.3% 3.58

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for New England Revolution relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.7% win probability, compared with 27.3% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

New England Revolution has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chicago Fire New England Revolution

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 16.5 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours New England Revolution, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chicago Fire New England Revolution

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3

New England Revolution has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chicago Fire New England Revolution

The combined recent performance profile favours New England Revolution.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Chicago Fire ↑ +0.29 (+16.7%)

New England Revolution ↓ -0.89 (-19.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.