Minnesota United vs FC Dallas

10 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.7 pp

Minnesota United

FC Dallas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.3% DRAW 22.3% AWAY 19.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.6% 1.84 DRAW 23.8% 4.14 AWAY 22.6% 4.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Minnesota United clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.3% win probability, compared with 53.6% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Minnesota United has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Minnesota United FC Dallas

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 9.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Minnesota United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Minnesota United FC Dallas

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Minnesota United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Minnesota United FC Dallas

The combined recent performance profile favours Minnesota United.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Minnesota United ↓ -0.20 (-9.8%)

FC Dallas ↑ +0.80 (+22.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.