Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United

06 Sep 2026 · 04:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Portland Timbers

Minnesota United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 35.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.45 DRAW 25.6% 3.83 AWAY 34.3% 2.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Minnesota United

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portland Timbers Minnesota United

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Minnesota United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portland Timbers Minnesota United

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portland Timbers Minnesota United

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Portland Timbers ↑ +0.21 (+9.4%)

Minnesota United ↓ -0.34 (-10.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.