LA Galaxy vs New England Revolution

06 Sep 2026 · 03:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.3 pp

LA Galaxy

New England Revolution

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.1% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 43.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.5% 2.60 DRAW 24.7% 3.95 AWAY 37.9% 2.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates New England Revolution clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.2% win probability, compared with 37.9% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

New England Revolution has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

LA Galaxy New England Revolution

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 17.3 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours New England Revolution, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

LA Galaxy New England Revolution

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.8

New England Revolution has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

LA Galaxy New England Revolution

The combined recent performance profile favours New England Revolution.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

LA Galaxy ↑ +0.26 (+11.1%)

New England Revolution ↓ -0.33 (-11.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.