Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

06 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Austin FC

San Jose Earthquakes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 33.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% 2.28 DRAW 25.9% 3.75 AWAY 31.7% 3.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: San Jose Earthquakes

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Austin FC San Jose Earthquakes

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Austin FC San Jose Earthquakes

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.5

San Jose Earthquakes has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Austin FC San Jose Earthquakes

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Austin FC ↑ +0.05 (+2.4%)

San Jose Earthquakes ↑ +0.02 (+0.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.