Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire

06 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Toronto FC

Chicago Fire

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.1% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 41.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.1% 2.93 DRAW 25.4% 3.83 AWAY 41.5% 2.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Chicago Fire

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toronto FC Chicago Fire

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toronto FC Chicago Fire

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toronto FC Chicago Fire

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Toronto FC ↑ +0.08 (+2.7%)

Chicago Fire ↓ -0.01 (-0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.