Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

06 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Philadelphia Union

CF Montreal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.3% DRAW 17.2% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.2% 1.46 DRAW 18.8% 5.20 AWAY 14.0% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Philadelphia Union relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.3% win probability, compared with 67.2% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Philadelphia Union

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Philadelphia Union CF Montreal

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Philadelphia Union CF Montreal

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Philadelphia Union has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Philadelphia Union CF Montreal

The combined recent performance profile favours Philadelphia Union.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Philadelphia Union ↓ -0.08 (-5.2%)

CF Montreal ↑ +1.40 (+25.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.