SK Brann vs Lillestrom

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

SK Brann

Lillestrom

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.9% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 20.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.1% 1.75 DRAW 23.0% 4.20 AWAY 21.9% 4.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for SK Brann relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.9% win probability, compared with 55.1% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: SK Brann

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

SK Brann Lillestrom

Shots 16.3 · On target 7.3 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours SK Brann, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SK Brann Lillestrom

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SK Brann Lillestrom

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

SK Brann ↓ -0.15 (-7.8%)

Lillestrom ↑ +0.47 (+12.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.