Viking FK vs Lillestrom

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Viking FK

Lillestrom

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.5% DRAW 14.3% AWAY 11.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.0% 1.38 DRAW 16.3% 6.03 AWAY 12.7% 7.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Viking FK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.5% win probability, compared with 71.0% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Viking FK has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Viking FK Lillestrom

Shots 17.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Viking FK, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Viking FK Lillestrom

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Viking FK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Viking FK Lillestrom

The combined recent performance profile favours Viking FK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Viking FK ↓ -0.04 (-2.7%)

Lillestrom ↑ +1.19 (+18.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.