Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg

13 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Fredrikstad

Sarpsborg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.1% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 38.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% 2.72 DRAW 26.8% 3.64 AWAY 37.5% 2.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fredrikstad Sarpsborg

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fredrikstad Sarpsborg

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fredrikstad Sarpsborg

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Fredrikstad ↑ +0.25 (+10.2%)

Sarpsborg ↓ -0.16 (-5.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.