Stabaek vs Sogndal

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.2 pp

Stabaek

Sogndal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.3% DRAW 12.6% AWAY 10.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.2% 1.35 DRAW 15.3% 6.25 AWAY 13.5% 7.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Stabaek substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.3% win probability, compared with 71.2% implied by the market. The 6.2 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Stabaek has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Stabaek Sogndal

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Stabaek, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Stabaek Sogndal

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 8.8

Stabaek has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Stabaek Sogndal

The combined recent performance profile favours Stabaek.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Stabaek ↓ -0.05 (-3.9%)

Sogndal ↑ +1.26 (+21.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.