Molde FK (W) vs Honefoss (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.7 pp

Molde FK (W)

Honefoss (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.1% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 18.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.4% 1.71 DRAW 21.6% 4.38 AWAY 23.0% 4.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Molde FK (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.1% win probability, compared with 55.4% implied by the market. The 6.7 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Molde FK (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Molde FK (W) Honefoss (W)

Shots 16.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Molde FK (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Molde FK (W) Honefoss (W)

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Molde FK (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Molde FK (W) Honefoss (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Molde FK (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Molde FK (W) ↓ -0.12 (-6.4%)

Honefoss (W) ↑ +0.49 (+13.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.