Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes

07 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Nueva Chicago

Quilmes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.4% DRAW 35.3% AWAY 35.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% 3.45 DRAW 34.2% 2.92 AWAY 36.9% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Quilmes

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nueva Chicago Quilmes

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nueva Chicago Quilmes

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Nueva Chicago has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nueva Chicago Quilmes

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Nueva Chicago ↑ +0.58 (+20.0%)

Quilmes ↓ -0.32 (-10.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.