Ferrocarril Midland vs Chacarita Juniors

13 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Ferrocarril Midland

Chacarita Juniors

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.0% DRAW 32.4% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.5% 1.98 DRAW 31.3% 3.19 AWAY 18.2% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ferrocarril Midland

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ferrocarril Midland Chacarita Juniors

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 4.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Ferrocarril Midland, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ferrocarril Midland Chacarita Juniors

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Chacarita Juniors has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ferrocarril Midland Chacarita Juniors

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ferrocarril Midland ↓ -0.02 (-1.0%)

Chacarita Juniors ↑ +0.83 (+17.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.