Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico Rafaela

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Gimnasia Jujuy

Atletico Rafaela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.0% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 18.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% 1.74 DRAW 27.2% 3.58 AWAY 16.9% 5.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia Jujuy

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gimnasia Jujuy Atletico Rafaela

Shots 10.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia Jujuy, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gimnasia Jujuy Atletico Rafaela

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Atletico Rafaela has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gimnasia Jujuy Atletico Rafaela

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Rafaela.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Gimnasia Jujuy ↓ -0.02 (-1.1%)

Atletico Rafaela ↑ +0.72 (+14.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.