Nordic United FC vs IFK Varnamo

09 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Nordic United FC

IFK Varnamo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.4% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 25.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.9% 2.02 DRAW 24.4% 3.96 AWAY 27.7% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nordic United FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.4% win probability, compared with 47.9% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nordic United FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nordic United FC IFK Varnamo

Shots 15.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Nordic United FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nordic United FC IFK Varnamo

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nordic United FC IFK Varnamo

The combined recent performance profile favours Nordic United FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nordic United FC ↓ -0.07 (-3.2%)

IFK Varnamo ↑ +0.66 (+23.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.