Ostersunds FK vs IK Brage

10 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Ostersunds FK

IK Brage

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.8% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 18.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.2% 1.73 DRAW 24.4% 3.92 AWAY 20.4% 4.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ostersunds FK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.8% win probability, compared with 55.2% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: IK Brage

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ostersunds FK IK Brage

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ostersunds FK IK Brage

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Ostersunds FK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ostersunds FK IK Brage

The combined recent performance profile favours Ostersunds FK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ostersunds FK ↑ +0.03 (+1.8%)

IK Brage ↑ +0.59 (+14.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.