Villa San Carlos vs CA Brown de Adrogue

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Villa San Carlos

CA Brown de Adrogue

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% DRAW 32.9% AWAY 31.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.5% 2.70 DRAW 32.3% 2.88 AWAY 33.2% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Villa San Carlos

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Villa San Carlos CA Brown de Adrogue

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Villa San Carlos CA Brown de Adrogue

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Villa San Carlos has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Villa San Carlos CA Brown de Adrogue

The combined recent performance profile favours Villa San Carlos.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Villa San Carlos ↑ +0.28 (+11.6%)

CA Brown de Adrogue ↓ -0.06 (-1.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.