Arsenal de Sarandi vs UAI Urquiza

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Arsenal de Sarandi

UAI Urquiza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.2% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 10.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.3% 1.39 DRAW 21.1% 4.44 AWAY 11.7% 8.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Arsenal de Sarandi relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.2% win probability, compared with 67.3% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Arsenal de Sarandi has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Arsenal de Sarandi UAI Urquiza

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Arsenal de Sarandi, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Arsenal de Sarandi UAI Urquiza

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Arsenal de Sarandi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Arsenal de Sarandi UAI Urquiza

The combined recent performance profile favours Arsenal de Sarandi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Arsenal de Sarandi ↓ -0.12 (-7.9%)

UAI Urquiza ↑ +1.52 (+23.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.