Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo

13 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Argentino Quilmes

Deportivo Merlo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.3% DRAW 34.4% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.33 DRAW 33.4% 2.80 AWAY 26.5% 3.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Deportivo Merlo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Argentino Quilmes Deportivo Merlo

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.0 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Argentino Quilmes Deportivo Merlo

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Deportivo Merlo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Argentino Quilmes Deportivo Merlo

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Merlo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Argentino Quilmes ↑ +0.02 (+0.9%)

Deportivo Merlo ↑ +0.14 (+4.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.