Excursionistas vs Real Pilar

26 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Excursionistas

Real Pilar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.3% DRAW 31.9% AWAY 22.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.1% 2.15 DRAW 31.6% 3.00 AWAY 24.3% 3.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Excursionistas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Excursionistas Real Pilar

Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Excursionistas Real Pilar

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Excursionistas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Excursionistas Real Pilar

The combined recent performance profile favours Excursionistas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Excursionistas ↑ +0.07 (+3.4%)

Real Pilar ↑ +0.43 (+13.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.