Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy

06 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Almagro

Gimnasia Jujuy

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% DRAW 31.9% AWAY 33.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.3% 2.86 DRAW 31.5% 3.03 AWAY 35.2% 2.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia Jujuy

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Almagro Gimnasia Jujuy

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia Jujuy, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Almagro Gimnasia Jujuy

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Almagro has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Almagro Gimnasia Jujuy

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Almagro ↓ -0.29 (-9.1%)

Gimnasia Jujuy ↑ +0.19 (+7.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.