Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu

12 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Almagro

Deportivo Maipu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% DRAW 35.3% AWAY 31.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% 2.66 DRAW 34.2% 2.81 AWAY 29.6% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Deportivo Maipu has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Almagro Deportivo Maipu

Shots 6.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Maipu, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Almagro Deportivo Maipu

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Deportivo Maipu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Almagro Deportivo Maipu

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Maipu.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Almagro ↓ -0.09 (-3.3%)

Deportivo Maipu ↑ +0.04 (+1.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.