El Porvenir vs Deportivo Espanol

21 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

El Porvenir

Deportivo Espanol

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.1% DRAW 34.9% AWAY 35.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.1% 2.88 DRAW 34.0% 2.80 AWAY 32.8% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Deportivo Espanol has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

El Porvenir Deportivo Espanol

Shots 4.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Espanol, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

El Porvenir Deportivo Espanol

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.3

Deportivo Espanol has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

El Porvenir Deportivo Espanol

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Espanol.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

El Porvenir ↑ +0.28 (+10.6%)

Deportivo Espanol = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.