Puerto Nuevo vs CA Lugano

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Puerto Nuevo

CA Lugano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% DRAW 33.0% AWAY 35.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.5% 2.89 DRAW 32.4% 2.90 AWAY 35.1% 2.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

CA Lugano has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Puerto Nuevo CA Lugano

Shots 9.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours CA Lugano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Puerto Nuevo CA Lugano

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Puerto Nuevo CA Lugano

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Puerto Nuevo ↑ +0.14 (+5.1%)

CA Lugano ↑ +0.15 (+5.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.