New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic

27 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.0 pp

New Mexico United

Sacramento Republic

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.4% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 51.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.3% 3.49 DRAW 26.3% 3.62 AWAY 46.4% 2.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Sacramento Republic clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.4% win probability, compared with 46.4% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sacramento Republic

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

New Mexico United Sacramento Republic

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

New Mexico United Sacramento Republic

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Sacramento Republic has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

New Mexico United Sacramento Republic

The combined recent performance profile favours Sacramento Republic.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

New Mexico United ↑ +0.29 (+9.1%)

Sacramento Republic ↓ -0.15 (-6.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.