Monterey Bay FC vs Lexington SC

27 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Monterey Bay FC

Lexington SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.3% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 47.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.4% 3.42 DRAW 26.5% 3.66 AWAY 45.1% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lexington SC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.8% win probability, compared with 45.1% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lexington SC

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monterey Bay FC Lexington SC

Shots 5.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 15.3 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Lexington SC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monterey Bay FC Lexington SC

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Monterey Bay FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monterey Bay FC Lexington SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Lexington SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Monterey Bay FC ↑ +0.34 (+11.0%)

Lexington SC ↓ -0.02 (-0.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.