Indy Eleven vs Miami FC

27 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Indy Eleven

Miami FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.6% DRAW 20.5% AWAY 21.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% 1.71 DRAW 21.9% 4.33 AWAY 22.8% 4.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Indy Eleven relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.6% win probability, compared with 55.3% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Indy Eleven

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Indy Eleven Miami FC

Shots 12.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Indy Eleven, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Indy Eleven Miami FC

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Indy Eleven Miami FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Indy Eleven.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Indy Eleven ↑ +0.01 (+0.3%)

Miami FC ↑ +0.02 (+0.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.