Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Orange County SC

Sacramento Republic

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.8% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 46.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% 3.30 DRAW 27.6% 3.45 AWAY 43.5% 2.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sacramento Republic

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Orange County SC Sacramento Republic

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Orange County SC Sacramento Republic

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Sacramento Republic has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Orange County SC Sacramento Republic

The combined recent performance profile favours Sacramento Republic.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Orange County SC ↓ -0.20 (-5.7%)

Sacramento Republic ↑ +0.21 (+10.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.