Las Vegas Lights FC vs New Mexico United

06 Sep 2026 · 04:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Las Vegas Lights FC

New Mexico United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 27.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.12 DRAW 25.7% 3.70 AWAY 29.3% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Las Vegas Lights FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Las Vegas Lights FC New Mexico United

Shots 11.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Las Vegas Lights FC New Mexico United

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Las Vegas Lights FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Las Vegas Lights FC New Mexico United

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Las Vegas Lights FC ↓ -0.17 (-7.4%)

New Mexico United ↑ +0.27 (+9.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.