Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion FC

06 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.1 pp

Indy Eleven

Birmingham Legion FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.2% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 17.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% 1.63 DRAW 21.1% 4.57 AWAY 19.8% 4.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Indy Eleven clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.2% win probability, compared with 59.1% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Indy Eleven has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Indy Eleven Birmingham Legion FC

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Indy Eleven, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Indy Eleven Birmingham Legion FC

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 6.5

Indy Eleven has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Indy Eleven Birmingham Legion FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Indy Eleven.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Indy Eleven ↓ -0.12 (-6.9%)

Birmingham Legion FC ↑ +0.75 (+18.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.