FC Naples vs AC Boise

06 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

FC Naples

AC Boise

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 41.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.5% 2.75 DRAW 26.5% 3.48 AWAY 40.0% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

AC Boise has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Naples AC Boise

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Naples AC Boise

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.3

AC Boise has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Naples AC Boise

The combined recent performance profile favours AC Boise.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FC Naples ↓ -0.45 (-14.1%)

AC Boise ↑ +0.20 (+9.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.