Forward Madison FC vs Spokane Velocity FC

27 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Forward Madison FC

Spokane Velocity FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.6% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 30.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% 2.21 DRAW 26.1% 3.55 AWAY 32.0% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Forward Madison FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.6% win probability, compared with 41.9% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Forward Madison FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Forward Madison FC Spokane Velocity FC

Shots 10.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 13.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Forward Madison FC Spokane Velocity FC

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Forward Madison FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Forward Madison FC Spokane Velocity FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Forward Madison FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Forward Madison FC ↑ +0.03 (+1.5%)

Spokane Velocity FC ↑ +0.41 (+13.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.