FC Haka vs MP

06 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

FC Haka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.7% DRAW 20.8% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.9% 1.46 DRAW 22.0% 4.30 AWAY 13.0% 7.26

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Haka relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.7% win probability, compared with 64.9% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Haka has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Haka MP

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours FC Haka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Haka MP

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.0

FC Haka has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Haka MP

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Haka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

FC Haka ↑ +0.16 (+12.3%)

MP ↓ -1.83 (-20.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.