KTP vs MP

25 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

KTP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.3% DRAW 18.3% AWAY 12.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% 1.45 DRAW 19.5% 5.03 AWAY 13.1% 7.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

KTP has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

KTP MP

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

KTP MP

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.3

KTP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

KTP MP

The combined recent performance profile favours KTP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

KTP ↑ +0.09 (+6.6%)

MP ↑ +0.54 (+7.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.