Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense

06 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Cruzeiro

Athletico Paranaense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.4% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 21.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% 1.82 DRAW 25.5% 3.85 AWAY 20.6% 4.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Athletico Paranaense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cruzeiro Athletico Paranaense

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cruzeiro Athletico Paranaense

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cruzeiro Athletico Paranaense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cruzeiro ↓ -0.03 (-1.8%)

Athletico Paranaense ↑ +0.26 (+5.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.