La Serena vs Nublense

06 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

La Serena

Nublense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 35.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.6% 2.50 DRAW 28.5% 3.39 AWAY 32.9% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Nublense has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

La Serena Nublense

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Nublense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

La Serena Nublense

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Nublense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

La Serena Nublense

The combined recent performance profile favours Nublense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

La Serena ↑ +0.20 (+8.7%)

Nublense ↓ -0.07 (-2.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.