Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK

09 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Gwangju FC

Jeju SK

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.2% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 52.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.0% 4.03 DRAW 26.8% 3.60 AWAY 49.2% 1.96

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Jeju SK relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.8% win probability, compared with 49.2% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Jeju SK has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gwangju FC Jeju SK

Shots 5.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Jeju SK, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gwangju FC Jeju SK

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Jeju SK has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gwangju FC Jeju SK

The combined recent performance profile favours Jeju SK.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Gwangju FC ↑ +0.03 (+0.8%)

Jeju SK ↑ +0.11 (+6.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.