Portland Thorns (W) vs Chicago Stars (W)

14 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Portland Thorns (W)

Chicago Stars (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.7% DRAW 14.1% AWAY 8.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.8% 1.28 DRAW 15.8% 6.06 AWAY 9.4% 10.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Portland Thorns (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.7% win probability, compared with 74.8% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Portland Thorns (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portland Thorns (W) Chicago Stars (W)

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Portland Thorns (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portland Thorns (W) Chicago Stars (W)

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.8

Portland Thorns (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portland Thorns (W) Chicago Stars (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Portland Thorns (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Portland Thorns (W) ↑ +0.04 (+3.6%)

Chicago Stars (W) ↑ +0.10 (+1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.