Chicago Stars (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)

06 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.4 pp

Chicago Stars (W)

North Carolina Courage (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.9% DRAW 16.1% AWAY 72.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.2% 6.70 DRAW 18.1% 5.28 AWAY 67.7% 1.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates North Carolina Courage (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.0% win probability, compared with 67.7% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

North Carolina Courage (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chicago Stars (W) North Carolina Courage (W)

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours North Carolina Courage (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chicago Stars (W) North Carolina Courage (W)

Shots allowed 20.5 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.0

North Carolina Courage (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chicago Stars (W) North Carolina Courage (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours North Carolina Courage (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Chicago Stars (W) ↑ +0.80 (+13.6%)

North Carolina Courage (W) ↓ 0.00 (-0.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.